Many teams are now starting to find their footing after three weeks while others are still trying to figure things out. There are also some huge division matchups that will likely be paramount to the playoff picture late this season. Without further ado, here are my week 4 game picks.

Thursday, September 28

Lions 20, Packers 17

The Packers are coming off a very impressive comeback victory last week against New Orleans and will have another tough task this week. Green Bay enters this game with some key injuries including David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins, which could spell trouble considering what Aidan Hutchinson and the Lions defensive line accomplished last week. The Packers should be getting Aaron Jones and Christian Watson back but Detroit’s D-line gets after Love and steals an important division road victory.

Sunday, October 1

Jaguars 26, Falcons 19

This is the first of two consecutive games in London for the Jaguars. It’s hard to feel great about either of these teams after last week. The Jaguars secondary continues to look like a major weakness, but can Desmond Ridder and the passing game for Atlanta take advantage? Getting the ball to playmakers like Kyle Pitts and Drake London would be a good start so they can take some pressure off their run game. The Jaguars offense has been in a rut the past two games but I think they turn it around a bit this week. Plus it’s a Calvin Ridley revenge game!

Bills 31, Dolphins 27

This is probably the game of the week. It’ll be interesting to see how the Bills game plan defensively for Miami’s offense. Sean McDermott has been much more aggressive taking over as the defensive play caller for Buffalo this season but that may not be the best route this week. The Bills will probably take a page out of the Patriots game plan and try to eliminate the deep ball and make Miami move the ball in smaller chunks. the Dolphins defense has a similar challenge this week in trying to defend Josh Allen. The key for Miami’s defense will be their defensive line creating some pressure, which Allen has faced little of the past two games.

Vikings 24, Panthers 20

The Panthers offense showed some growth last week in Seattle and it should continue against one of the league’s worst defenses. It looks like Bryce Young will be back for this one so it will be interesting to see how he fares against a defense with many problems. Adam Thielen and Miles Sanders should be leaned on heavily in this game. Meanwhile, the Vikings are coming off a devastating loss at home but I think they win in close one.

Broncos 30, Bears 20

In this battle of inept defenses and 0-3 teams, I trust Sean Payton and Russell Wilson to take advantage more than Luke Getsy and Justin Fields. Wilson has played well this season despite the 0-3 start and has been overshadowed by how poor Denver’s defense has been to start the year. Fields is still struggling to see the field and make good decisions, and I think it’s time they utilize his running ability as they did last season. The Broncos defense forces a couple turnovers in this one and comes away with their first win of the season.

Browns 21, Ravens 13

The Browns are fielding the best defense in the league right now and are complete at all three levels. The Ravens should look to use Lamar Jackson’s legs to try to slow down the pass rush and keep the defense honest. A positive development for the Browns was the play of Deshaun Watson last week. He looked more accurate and comfortable leading the offense. I think that carries over and the Browns win a crucial AFC North divisional game.

Steelers 24, Texans 16

Both of these teams showed positive signs on the offensive side last week. CJ Stroud has played really well and the Texans have an intriguing group of WRs that can cause problems for Pittsburgh’s secondary. The problem is that this Texans O-line is really beat up right now and has to face a ferocious pass rush led by TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith. The Steelers offense still has work to do but I think they continue their offensive growth from last week.

Rams 23, Colts 20

It looks like Anthony Richardson will be back for the Colts in this one. He provides the running ability to open up the playbook a bit more, but will he be able to attack the Rams secondary? The Rams struggled mightily last week to cover Ja’Marr Chase but the Colts don’t have the passing game to take advantage. On the other side, the Rams offensive line needs to give Matthew Stafford time to attack a Colts secondary that also has some struggles.

Saints 24, Buccaneers 20

The Saints will turn to Jameis Winston in this one against his former team. They also get Alvin Kamara back from a three game suspension to help bolster their run game. If Jameis can take care of the football and get it to his playmakers, the Saints should win. The Buccaneers are going to have to protect the ball a lot better than they did against the Eagles this past Monday night, especially against a Saints defense that has mostly played lights out this year. The Saints offense still has concerns, specifically the O-line, but I think they win the turnover battle to win a close one.

Eagles 30, Commanders 17

The Eagles played their most complete game of the season last week. Bad news for a Commanders team that looked hapless against the Bills. The eagles look to be firing on all cylinders after both D’Andre Swift and AJ Brown had big performances last week. The Commanders will need to run the ball and maintain time of possession as they did in their win over Philadelphia last year if they want the upset.

Bengals 23, Titans 17

I’m not sure how the Titans can expect to run an offense after the way their offensive line has performed through three games. Ryan Tannehill has been under constant duress and it doesn’t help when you have receivers that can’t get open. Tennessee needs to do something to get Derrick Henry and the ground game going. Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s D-line got after Matthew Stafford all night last week and it could be more of the same this week. Expect another big game from Ja’Marr Chase against one of the worst secondaries in the league after Amari Cooper had a big day against them last week.

Chargers 30, Raiders 20

This is a perfect opportunity for the Chargers to get to 2-2 after opening with consecutive losses. The Raiders could be without Jimmy Garoppolo who really struggled last week. The Chargers offense has been very good to start the year but now lose Mike Williams to injury, but they have good depth at the position. Brandon Staley has to get this defense playing better if the Chargers want to be true contenders in the AFC.

Cowboys 26, Patriots 17

The Patriots should try to emulate the Cardinals offensive game plan last week. Arizona used some creative outside runs to attack the the Cowboys overly aggressive defense. They need to make sure they are not in a situation where Dallas can unleash its pass rush and get after Mac Jones. For the Cowboys, the offense needs to finish drives in the redzone with touchdowns which will be tough against a Patriots defense that has played fairly well this season.

49ers 30, Cardinals 20

The 49ers offense seems unstoppable right now and they have so many weapons on offense to attack you with. They put up 30 points again last week in a game that featured Deebo Samuel prominently. The Cardinals offense has been surprisingly good and can probably move the ball again because of Drew Petzing’s creative play calling. They are going to need to take long drives in this one because their defense just won’t be able to make enough stops.

Chiefs 23, Jets 13

The Chiefs offense looked like themselves against the Bears last week but now face a real defense in the Jets. I think the Jets can hang around in this one because of their defense but the offense needs to do something early in games. Nathaniel Hackett needs to be more creative and find ways to get Zach Wilson more comfortable. Maybe more plays where he is outside the pocket will help. The Jets also need the run game to get going if they want to have success against a Chiefs defense that has played really well so far.

Monday, October 2

Seahawks 27, Giants 26

The Seahawks offense is rolling over the past two games and now face a struggling Giants defense. It was good to see Kenneth Walker have a big game last week to complement what Seattle has for in their pass game. On the other hand, the Giants are beat up offensively but may be getting Saquon Barkley back this week. Even if he doesn’t play, I think the Giants can score points on a Seattle defense with a rash of injuries. This feels like a game where Darren Waller will be featured plentily for the G-Men.