As we head into the second half of the season, the AFC is extremely crowded with potential playoff teams while there is a little more separation in the NFC. Read below for this week’s game picks.

Thursday, November 9

Bears 23, Panthers 20

Each of these QBs had a rough go of it last week. Luckily they both play defenses that are very forgiving and give a lot of production. The Bears should look to continue running the football and making sure to get Tyson Bagent outside the pocket where he can use his legs. I think the Bears also get DJ Moore more involved in the passing game in his revenge game against Carolina.

Sunday, November 12

Colts 27, Patriots 17

The Colts defense came on strong last week and they have a great chance to continue that this week. The Patriots offensive game plan should be centered on getting the ball to Rhamondre Stevenson and Demario Douglas, the only playmakers that can really make a difference for them. Jonathan Taylor has been playing better recently and should get plenty of touches in this game. If Gardner Minshew can take care of the football, the Colts should be able to get to .500 and be squarely in the playoff mix.

Ravens 20, Browns 13

This game should be a great rematch of a game that was a blowout earlier in the season. This Ravens defense has no weakness and has gotten many key contributions from players like safety Geno Stone (6 INTs) and DT Justin Madubuike (7.5 sacks). The offense, meanwhile, has gotten the run game cooking while the pass game still works through a few things. The Browns are going to need Deshaun Watson to show out and make a few big plays to attack this defense because I expect Baltimore to take away the run.

Bengals 30, Texans 20

CJ Stroud looked great last week but now has to face a Bengals defense playing some good football. DC Lou Anarumo will have a few tricks up his sleeve to trick the rookie quarterback and force him into mistakes. The Bengals offense should have another big day now that they look fully in sync again. The scary part of their offense is that even with as well as they have played in recent weeks, there is still some meat left on the bone and they can still get even better.

Jaguars 24, 49ers 23

It’s hard to see the 49ers losing four in a row but I think it happens with another tough opponent on tap. The 49ers pass rush and secondary have suddenly shown up as issues in recent games. The Jaguars have the pass catchers to challenge San Francisco in the passing game like the Bengals did a couple weeks ago. For the 49ers, it is important they get the run game going more effectively and they cut down on turnovers. The bad news: The Jaguars lead the NFL in takeaways.

Saints 27, Vikings 23

Josh Dobbs did a great job in relief for Jaren Hall after arriving in Minnesota just days earlier. With the athleticism that Dobbs displayed last week and in the past, Kevin O’Connell should be salivating at the chance to get Dobbs outside the pocket to use his legs where the Saints gave up a lot of production to Tyson Bagent last week. I think if the Saints slow down the run game, they have the secondary to lock down Minnesota’s WRs and get a close road win.

Steelers 20, Packers 10

The Steelers don’t often look great when they win but they find ways. This week’s opponent does not look like as much of a challenge. The Packers offense is still struggling and Jordan Love still looks like a young QB navigating through growing pains. Pittsburgh has the pass rush to rattle him and really take over. The Steelers offense still looks like they have a lot of work to do but the return of Diontae Johnson has helped and is big for them the rest of the way.

Buccaneers 26, Titans 20

The Buccaneers have completely imploded and are now in desperate need of a win. They let CJ Stroud rip up their defense and now they face another rookie QB in Will Levis who has shown some positive signs. The Titans secondary is still a big enough weakness that will allow Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to have big days. Rachaad White has also played well of late to give them another weapon. The big focus for Tampa Bay is containing Derrick Henry and making Tennessee have to throw the ball.

Falcons 24, Cardinals 19

The return of Kyler Murray is a very intriguing storyline in this game. It can’t be much worse than it was last week for Arizona on offense and at least they play a reeling defense. The Falcons are hard to trust this season but their offense has been good enough the last couple games with Taylor Heinicke at QB. The run game for Atlanta has been a little disappointing recently and they should try to do that more this week.

Lions 27, Chargers 24

The Chargers defense seems to have turned the corner the last couple weeks (Bears, Jets) even though they weren’t against the best offenses. The secondary has mostly limited big plays and the defense has had more turnovers. The pass rush also looked really good last week and that needs to continue against the Lions. The Lions defense is also playing well and their main focus needs to be limiting Austin Ekeler in the pass game. If they can do that, the Chargers offense seems to struggle to move the ball consistently.

Cowboys 30, Giants 10

Predicting the Giants to score 10 even feels a little generous as they now move on to start their third QB of the season. The Cowboys pass rush is going to feast in this one and they should also be able to get some turnovers. This seems like a good game for the Cowboys to work on their running game and finally getting Tony Pollard going again. If they can run the game more efficiently, it makes this team very dangerous going forward.

Seahawks 27, Commanders 20

The Seahawks allowed 298 yards rushing last week to the Ravens! Luckily, the Commanders don’t really have any interest in running the football. This plays right into Seattle’s strength of pass rush and coverage. For the Seahawks offense, they need to finally have a big game to get back on track. Everyone from Geno Smith to the WRs to the RBs need to start playing better if this team has aspirations to go somewhere this year. With Washington’s diminished pass rush and weak secondary, look for Geno Smith to have a huge game.

Raiders 20, Jets 16

The Jets defense does all it can every week to win, but the offense simply does not have enough production most weeks. The best way for the Jets offense to be efficient is by giving the ball to Breece Hall. If they have to drop back a lot in this one, it could be a long day with Maxx Crosby coming off the edges. Aidan O’Connell and the offense did enough good things last week that I trust them to put together enough quality drives to give them the edge. Josh Jacobs should also get plenty of carries coming off his best game of the season.

Monday, November 13

Bills 23, Broncos 17

The Bills need to do something about the way they play on offense. They often seem to run the ball well but get away from it and start leaning on Josh Allen too much. The Broncos, on the other hand, seem to have embraced running the ball which will be a big challenge for Buffalo to defend. Denver doesn’t have the passing game to have a complete enough attack which is why I think the Bills win in in the end. This is also a Von Miller revenge game! It’s time for him to start making an impact again because they need it desperately.