This week is highlighted by the MNF Super Bowl rematch that wraps up the week, Eagles at Chiefs. There are also many other big games including a huge divisional TNF game to get things going. Below are my week 11 game picks.

Thursday, November 16

Ravens 24, Bengals 20

Both of these teams showed some weaknesses in losing last week. Seeing the Bengals run defense struggle again was discouraging after seeming like they had turned a corner. On the other hand, the Ravens defense struggled to tackle, especially late in the game. Each team is struggling with injuries as well with Cincinnati without Tee Higgins and Sam Hubbard and the Ravens without Marlon Humphrey and Ronnie Stanley. I trust the Ravens a little more at home to squeeze this huge divisional game out, practically ending the Bengals chances of winning the AFC North.

Sunday, November 19

Cowboys 27, Panthers 16

The Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb connection has been unstoppable the last few weeks. Carolina’s pass defense hasn’t been too bad this year but this is a huge test. It was nice to see the Cowboys involve Brandin Cooks more in the offense to establish another weapon going forward. Even if the defense keeps this game somewhat close, the Panthers offense figures to really struggle to move the ball. Frank Reich took back play calling duties this week but that can only help an offense so much that is devoid of many weapons.

Browns 20, Steelers 17

The news of Deshaun Watson being out for the year with a shoulder injury is devastating for the Browns considering he was starting to improve his play. Dorian Thompson-Robinson will now start after struggling mightily against the Ravens in his NFL debut. He needs to make quick decision and get rid of the ball to avoid letting Pittsburgh’s pass rush get going. The Steelers offense is still struggling with consistency and the Browns have the defense to take over and get some turnovers. This will be a tough, physical, and gritty AFC North battle that Cleveland wins late.

Lions 28, Bears 20

The Lions showed how dangerous they could be after deploying their fully healthy offensive line last week. Jared Goff wasn’t sacked once and the team ran for 200 yards! That’s bad news against a Bears pass rush that still lacks juice although Montez Sweat has been a great addition. Getting Justin Fields back helps the Bears chances of trying to keep up in this one because his dynamic running can help the offense.

Chargers 26, Packers 23

I’m a little worried to pick the Chargers here because this is the type of game they tend to lose and I am very discouraged by the defensive performance last week. The Packers made some strides on offense last week but the turnovers continue to plague this team. Getting Aaron Jones going in the run game needs to happen at some point to give them more balance. One of the key matchups in this game will be the Packers DBs against Keenan Allen. Allen has been so productive this season and if Green Bay can slow him down, the rest of the Chargers WRs need to step up more than they have this season.

Texans 27, Cardinals 24

CJ Stroud and the entire Texans offense has been heating up over the last two games. Stroud has been playing with extreme confidence and it really shows with the amount of difficult throws he has attempted and completed the last couple weeks. Even Devin Singletary ignited the run game for Houston last week by rushing for 150 yards. Houston is right in the thick of the AFC playoff picture and this would be another huge win for them. The Cardinals will be a tough out with Kyler Murray playing in his second game back and looking solid in his return last week. Houston’s defense needs to try to limit his scrambling and running to extend plays.

Jaguars 23, Titans 13

The Jaguars need to get back on track after having a disaster of a game last week against the 49ers. The Jags offensive line really struggled last week but the good thing is they will not have to face a pass rush like that this week. If Trevor Lawrence has time to throw, Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley will both have big games. Lost in the game last week was that the Jaguars pass rush played very well. Not great for Will Levis and the Titans offense. Derrick Henry has to be a big part of the game plan in this one to keep Jacksonville off the field and to give them balance on offense.

Dolphins 28, Raiders 19

I’ve been very impressed by the Raiders defense lately. This will be a great test to see if they can slow one of the best offenses in the league. For the Dolphins, I’d like to see a greater commitment to the run and maybe the return of De’Von Achane will spark that. The Raiders will probably want to give Josh Jacobs plenty of carries to keep Miami off the field and win time of possession. Getting Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers involved is also key.

Commanders 27, Giants 17

Sam Howell is having a really good season which is one of the most encouraging takeaways from this season for the Commanders. The Giants defense has started to struggle again after allowing over 600 yards of offense to the Cowboys last week! The Washington WRs should be in for big games after watching CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks torch New York. the Giants offense is so limited because of injuries/personnel. This feels like a game where Saquon Barkley will get plenty of touches trying desperately to move the offense.

49ers 24, Buccaneers 13

The 49ers defense got back on track thanks in large part to a defensive line that dominated up front. The offense also looks back to full strength with Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams back in the fold. The Buccaneers defense needs to affect Brock Purdy to force turnovers if they want to win this game. Tampa Bay is also going to need a big game from Baker Mayfield because San Francisco will most likely be trying to take away the run game.

Bills 20, Jets 18

The Bills biggest concern on offense is turning the ball over which doesn’t bode well for them against a defense that finds ways to get lots of takeaways. With Ken Dorsey on the way out as OC and Joe Brady taking over, expect the Bills to lean more on their run game which has been effective this year. Meanwhile, the Jets offense continues to hurt itself offensively with penalties and inopportune turnovers. If they can reverse those trends, they can certainly move the ball against a mediocre Bills defense.

Seahawks 23, Rams 20

The Rams are getting Matthew Stafford back this week which is huge for them considering how the offense fared without him. The Rams always seem to give Seattle a lot of trouble and that will be the case here again. Geno Smith has regressed this season and the Seahawks offense still seems like they have a ways to go to find consistency. It was good to see DK Metcalf have a big game last week and he needs to play like that going forward. The Seahawks secondary needs to tighten up this week against Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua after struggling last week.

Broncos 27, Vikings 23

Both of these teams are trending up right now and look like possible playoff teams. The key for each team is the improvements of their defense from early in the year. The Vikings have done a great job getting Joshua Dobbs playing well in their system and he has made a number of great plays in each game he has played for the Vikings. The Broncos offense has been very run heavy and has made thinks easier on Russell Wilson. I think Denver’s defense makes enough plays to win a close one at home.

Monday, November 20

Eagles 23, Chiefs 22

The long awaited Super Bowl rematch should be a great game. The Chiefs need to take advantage of the glaring weakness that is the Eagles secondary. I’m skeptical Kansas City has the playmakers to truly take advantage of that matchup. Meanwhile the Chiefs defense needs to make sure they take away some of the deep shots to AJ Brown and make the Eagles drive the length of the field. I think the Chiefs defense can slow Philadelphia a bit, but the Eagles win it in a nail biter to close out week 11.