This is one of the best weeks on the NFL schedule with the Thanksgiving triple header as well as the first ever Black Friday game. For those game picks and the rest of week 12, read below.

Thursday, November 23

Lions 30, Packers 23

This game should be a lot more competitive than the Lions rout over the Packers on TNF earlier this season. Jordan Love has improved over the last couple weeks and rookie WR Jayden Reed has made some big plays in recent games. The Lions defense could have its hands full after really struggling lately. The Lions offense has been so good though and that should continue by utilizing their dynamic RB duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.

Cowboys 34, Commanders 20

The Commanders offense has shown so many good things this year, mainly their pass game but the turnovers continue to be maddening for a team that turned it over 6 times last week. The Commanders defense is also among the worst in the league and it showed as they allowed the Giants offense to look competent. Meanwhile, the Cowboys offense has been on another level with Dak Prescott playing some great football. The Commanders defense will have no answers in this one.

49ers 20, Seahawks 16

Brock Purdy has played as well as any QB in the league the last two games and the 49ers look like an elite team again. The Seahawks will be playing with a banged up Geno Smith and without Kenneth Walker making things exponentially tougher for them. The Seattle pass rush led by Boye Mafe needs to case a lot of chaos up front to disrupt the San Francisco offense. The Seahawks also need to find ways to get turnovers and big plays on special teams to pull this game out.

Friday, November 24

Dolphins 24, Jets 13

We’ll see if Tim Boyle can change the fortunes for the Jets offense. That’s going to be tough against an improving Dolphins defense since the return of Jalen Ramsey in the secondary. The Jets defense can certainly pose problems for the Miami offense but Tyreek Hill getting some big plays feels inevitable. The Jets need to control the ball and limit the penalties to keep Miami off the field and maybe they can pull off a huge win for them to stay in the AFC playoff picture.

Sunday, November 26

Saints 23, Falcons 20

These are two of the hardest teams to trust in the league. The Falcons are going back to Desmond Ridder while the Saints are hopeful Derek Carr clears concussion protocol and plays in this game. The Saints defense has gotten by with forcing a lot of turnovers this season, with Ridder’s biggest problem being taking care of the football. That should be the difference in a game that figures to be a crazy and wild NFC South matchup.

Bengals 23, Steelers 16

It’s getting late for the Steelers offense to improve, but maybe the firing of Matt Canada and the switch to Eddie Faulkner will give them a spark. At the end of the day, Kenny Pickett and the pass game has to get better. It will also be interesting to see the Bengals offense with Jake Browning now under center. Cincinnati has the weapons to make the transition smother than other teams might have it. Plus, Joe Mixon and the run game have been strong lately creating a good balance for the offense. If the Bengals O-line limits the pass rush threat Pittsburgh poses, the Bengals can attack the secondary.

Texans 27, Jaguars 23

This is a huge game as the winner will be in first place in the AFC South. It was good to see Calvin Ridley have a big game after a very up and down season. Meanwhile, CJ Stroud had a tough game against the Cardinals in throwing three interceptions. I think he bounces back but is going to need to be a lot cleaner in this one. Jacksonville has a good run defense to slow the resurgent Texans run game with Devin Singletary. I believe in Stroud to continue his excellent rookie campaign and for Tank Dell and Nico Collins to have big games.

Colts 29, Buccaneers 24

Both of these teams continue to exceed the expectations many had for them coming into the season. I believe Colts HC Shane Steichen has done as good a job as anyone by getting this Colts team to 5-5 and finding ways to get the offense to be productive. Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield is playing well for the Buccaneers but needs more consistent help from his running game and defense. This score could be a bit conservative as both of these teams could get into the 30s.

Giants 13, Patriots 10

Tommy DeVito, Saquon Barkley, and the rest of the Giants offense exploded last week against the Commanders, but I don’t expect them to do that again the rest of the season. Bill Belichick, meanwhile, has yet to name a starter this week but it really doesn’t matter much at this point considering their personnel. Aside from Demario Douglas and Rhamondre Stevenson, the Patriots don’t really have any explosive threats for the Giants to worry about. After the Giants forced six turnovers last week, they can get a few more this week and win a defensive game.

Titans 24, Panthers 23

Will Levis has cooled down since his hot start and Bryce Young has had a rough few weeks but this game should be fun. Both of these defense have major issues in that the Panthers struggle to stop the run and the Titans struggle to stop the pass so these offenses should have clear cut approaches this week. The Titans need to get Derrick Henry going again to set up play action for Levis to be more successful. This should be a good week to get that back on track. Hopefully this is the week Bryce Young takes a step forward to progressing in what has been an extremely tough rookie season.

Cardinals 27, Rams 26

Kyler Murray has played well in his two games back from injury but it feels like a breakout game is coming soon. This could be the week where it all comes together for the Arizona offense. The Rams will be shorthanded without Cooper Kupp in this game but should be returning RB Kyren Williams from IR which is a major boost for a run game that hasn’t been the same without him. This should be a fun back and forth game with Arizona pulling it out late.

Broncos 20, Browns 10

This should be a rugged game with a lot of defense. The Broncos have done a great job to get to .500 but a huge problem is their offense continuing to settle for FGs instead of finishing drives with TDs. Russell Wilson has done a great job getting rid of the ball and making quick decision which is important going against Myles Garrett who is playing as well as anybody. One of the big keys to Denver’s defensive improvements has been the play of CB Ja’Quan McMillian who has turned the secondary from a weakness into a strength. The Browns will probably lean heavily into their ground game this week which makes sense, especially against a Broncos defense that has struggled against the run.

Chiefs 23, Raiders 16

The Chiefs offensive struggles, particularly in the second half are concerning but as long as the defense keeps making plays, they’ll be in every game. The Chiefs WRs are going to need to make more plays at some point so that would be good to see sometime soon. The Raiders have been very competitive lately and have kept games close even if it doesn’t always look pretty. Getting Josh Jacobs going in this one is huge because Kansas City will most likely be trying to take away Davante Adams after his recent resurgence.

Eagles 31, Bills 28

The Bills are coming off a dominant performance against the Jets but now must contend with a high flying Eagles team coming off a big road victory. This seems like a game Buffalo will need to air the ball out 35+ times considering the Eagles stout run defense and not so stout secondary. Expect the Bills to take advantage of the middle of the field where Philly has been unable to cover anybody this year. The difference in this game will be the Eagles run game being able to sustain time of possession and wear Buffalo out.

Ravens 30, Chargers 20

I have finally given up on the Chargers potential this season. They routinely struggle to make key plays on both sides of the ball each week. The defense hasn’t turned the corner and I see no reason to believe it will change this week against a tough Ravens offense. Drops plagued the Chargers chances last week and they will have to be dialed in this week because they can not let their opportunities slip away when they have chances against this very talented defense. I want to see the Chargers stick with the run game a but more this week because they were able to break some big runs last week and it’s important they retain some semblance of balance offensively. The Ravens should be able to move the ball in this game, although the adjustment playing without Mark Andrews will be interesting to monitor.

Monday, November 27

Vikings 24, Bears 20

The Vikings slipped up last week on the road against the surging Broncos and now get to face a Bears team that has looked better recently. Justin Fields really stress defenses with his running ability and downfield passing as Detroit experienced last week. OC Luke Getsy has done a good job establishing the run and also mixing some shot plays in. The Vikings offense continues to be productive but turnovers have derailed them in a big way all season long. If they protect the ball, and allow Josh Dobbs to keep creating with his running ability, they can get a big divisional win. Plus, Justin Jefferson might be back which would be a huge boost for the passing game.