Below are my picks for week 14.

Thursday, December 7

Steelers 17, Patriots 9

This game will be determined by field position and which team can avoid a killer turnover. The pass rush of the Steelers should be the difference making unit in this game against a shaky Patriots offensive line. The Steelers offense did not continue their ascension last week and now have to start Mitchell Trubisky. If he can play a conservative game and avoid mistakes, they can put together a couple solid drives which is all they will need in this one.

Sunday, December 10

Buccaneers 21, Falcons 17

The Falcons have won a couple in a row, mostly in spite of Desmond Ridder and the passing game. This needs to be a game where he elevates his play because the run game might not be strong enough against Tampa Bay’s stout run defense. I think the Buccaneers defense will create some turnovers and help set up some short fields. The Baker Mayfield to Mike Evans connection is among the league’s best and will be the reason The Buccaneers win an all important divisional matchup.

Ravens 30, Rams 20

The Rams are right back in the thick of the playoff race after rattling off three straight wins. Coming off their bye, one of the developments to watch for the Ravens is if Keaton Mitchell will get an increase in carries going forward. His explosiveness could be huge for them moving forward. The Rams offense is humming right now thanks to their blend of the pass and run game. The Rams offense needs to be extremely aware of where the pressure is coming from in this game because Baltimore is very creative with their blitzes.

Bears 23, Lions 20

The Bears blew a late lead in Detroit a few weeks ago but I think they get revenge in this one. The Chicago defense has been better as of late because of a much improved run defense and a more ferocious pass rush. Last time we saw the Bears play, they picked off Joshua Dobbs four times. Jared Goff has to be careful as he threw three picks in the first matchup. The Justin Fields and DJ Moore connection is on fire right now and that continues this week in a Bears upset victory.

Bengals 27, Colts 26

Jake Browning is coming off of a sensational game, which gives the Bengals plenty of hope to make a playoff run going forward, but the defense still needs improvement. Meanwhile, the Colts continue to get a lot of production from their offense and Michael Pittman has been a big part of that. This should be a game featuring a lot of offense but I think the difference is Bengals DC Lou Anarumo’s defense finding ways to limit the Colts to field goals. Plus, with Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Mixon, and Tee Higgins all playing together again for a second consecutive week, the Bengals will have too much firepower.

Browns 23, Jaguars 16

Joe Flacco played well enough in his first start for the Browns and he should get the start again this week. Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt should get plenty of carries after Jacksonville really struggled against the run last week. The Jaguars defense doesn’t have many big playmakers outside of Josh Allen so he is going to continue to make impact plays to keep the defense afloat. The Browns defense also needs to get back to form after falling off a bit in recent weeks. With Trevor Lawrence most likely out this week, they will have more opportunities to get back on track against CJ Beathard.

Saints 23, Panthers 13

The Saints lost another game where they rally back, only to lose at the end last week. This week should be different. The Panthers offense is so limited through the air, which is the strong point of the New Orleans defense. The silver lining for Carolina is that their run game has been better and the Saints have had all sorts of problems defending the run. The scare for the Saints could be Jameis Winston turning it over and keeping Carolina in it if Derek Carr isn’t able to play this week.

Texans 24, Jets 13

Zach Wilson is back at QB for the Jets but it really doesn’t matter at this point. He will be better than their other options but at this point the whole offense is broken. The Jets defense can make this game interesting as they often do but eh Texans offense is operating at a high level. The loss of Tank Dell hurts them but the emergence of Nico Collins and returning Noah Brown from injury can help fill that void. The Houston defense is solid, if unspectacular but good enough to shut down a miserable Jets offense this week.

Vikings 24, Raiders 20

The return of Justin Jefferson for the Vikings will be a huge boost for the stretch run as they try to make a playoff push in the NFC. It could also help Joshua Dobbs coming off a rough couple games. The Raiders have been scrappy lately and can hang a round in this game if Minnesota continues to turn the ball over as they have all season long. The Raiders offense has to be aware of the blitzes Brian Flores will call and have some screens and quick throws ready. Aidan O’Connell will make a couple mistakes which will be the difference in this game.

49ers 30, Seahawks 20

The offensive explosion of the Seahawks last Thursday against Dallas was shocking. I’m not sure they can replicate it again this week against a 49ers defense playing so well. The biggest key is Seattle protecting Geno Smith up front. If they can do that sufficiently enough, they have a chance due to the talent in their receiving corps. Even so, their defense doesn’t look capable of slowing down San Francisco. The 49ers offense proves to be too tough to stop once again this week.

Bills 27, Chiefs 24

The Bills offense was scorching hot entering their bye week. They now have to face off against a tougher defense, albeit one that has given up some big plays recently. The Chiefs defense also has some big injuries making this even tougher on them. This feels like a game where the Kansas City offense needs to score plenty of points if they want to win. The lack of reliable receivers continues to plague them but Isiah Pacheco and the run game has been very good. Controlling the clock and running the ball should be their strategy in this one but ultimately I think the Bills have too much firepower for them to contend with.

Broncos 27, Chargers 19

The Broncos seem to play a one score game every week, and I think it happens again this week. The Chargers are a hard team to figure out. Their offense and defense never seem to play well in the same game. Outside of Keenan Allen, the Chargers have no threats offensively. Austin Ekeler looks as though he has lost a step and rookie Quentin Johnson continues to struggle with drops. One of the important things for the Broncos is they need to get their offense going earlier in the game to avoid falling in the AFC playoff picture.

Cowboys 34, Eagles 27

This is a massive game in determining who wins the NFC East. The Cowboys offense has been the best in the league over the past several weeks with Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb on a tear. The Eagles secondary has been porous and their tackling has left a lot to be desired. The Eagles need to win a shootout to win this game and that starts with Philly getting off to a better start. They should look to attack DaRon Bland vertically with AJ Brown after seeing Bland struggle last week. Ultimately, the Cowboys have the better offense and defense in this game to win an extremely important matchup.

Monday, December 11

Dolphins 31, Titans 17

The offense gets all the praise for the Dolphins but it’s time to give the defense credit. Since Jalen Ramsey has returned from his injury, the Dolphins secondary has been one of the best in the league. It seems like the best scenario for the Titans is to run the ball and hope to take long drives that finish with TDs. The Titans defense needs to do all it can to limit Tyreek Hill, but few teams have been able to do that. I don’t see Tennessee doing it this week either.

Packers 24, Giants 14

Jordan Love has played like a top QB the last three weeks. He has also developed quite a rapport with Christian Watson but he may be out this week thanks to sustaining another hamstring injury. The Giants defense has played hard and could slow Green Bay, but the offense probably won’t be able to do its job. The Packers pass rush has been really good lately and that continues this week against a leaky Giants offensive line.