With only three weeks remaining in the regular season, there are still so many division titles and playoff spots on the line. Many of those will be closer to being decided after this week. We also end this week with a potential Super Bowl preview when the Ravens visit the 49ers on Christmas night to conclude week 16. Read below for this week’s slate of game picks.

Thursday, December 21

Rams 24, Saints 20

This is a huge game in the NFC playoff race. The Rams offense is rolling and is even getting key contributions from a player like Demarcus Robinson who has done a nice job as their WR3 the last few weeks. The biggest development for the Saints has been their pass rush the last two games. If they can continue that, they have a strong enough secondary to limit the Rams from doing a lot of damage through the air. The difference in this game is the Rams running game led by Kyren Williams who can gash New Orleans on perimeter runs.

Saturday, December 23

Bengals 20, Steelers 17

This is pretty much a must win for the Steelers if they want to stay alive for a playoff spot in the AFC and I expect them to go down fighting. Mason Rudolph will be starting at QB for the Steelers which will probably result in a more conservative attack. The Bengals have a challenge playing without Ja’Marr Chase this week but I still trust the Bengals offense with how well Jake Browning and Joe Mixon have played recently. Expect a tough, down to the wire AFC North matchup that the Bengals win late.

Bills 34, Chargers 17

It’s hard to see this game being very competitive with both of these teams heading in different directions. Making things even tougher for the Chargers will be the absence of Keenan Allen for a second consecutive week, leaving a lack of quality WR options. If the Bills continue what they did last week with their pass rush and secondary playing in unison as well as they did, it’s going to be hard for the Chargers to score. This looks like another big game for James Cook and the entire Bills offense.

Sunday, December 24

Colts 27, Falcons 20

The Colts continue to churn out wins, as they continue to get solid production from Gardner Minshew, Michael Pittman, and from the various running backs that have needed to play significant snaps this year. The return of Jonathan Taylor this week for the Colts will be needed against a pretty good Atlanta run defense. Meanwhile, the Falcons are going back to Taylor Heinicke at QB for the rest of the season. I’m not sure it makes much of a difference as Heinicke has a penchant for back breaking turnovers. The Falcons best bet is getting their ground game rolling again.

Packers 26, Panthers 17

The Packers need to win this game after dropping two in a row. The Green Bay defense is still very disappointing most weeks and they still struggle to stop the run. They should expect a heavy dose of the run game from Carolina, but the Panthers are still a very limited offense. Jordan Love has cooled down a bit the past two games, but as long as he takes care of the football, they should be okay in this one. This feels like a heavy Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon game.

Browns 20, Texans 13

It looks like Case Keenum will be starting at QB again for Houston. He made a few nice plays last week but also threw a number of dangerous passes that could have been interceptions. The Browns will be looking to take advantage of those bad passes after they failed to catch a few possible interceptions last week. Joe Flacco is also coming off a game where he struggled quite a bit but had a tremendous fourth quarter. This game might be on Flacco and the passing game again after Houston completely shut down Tennessee’s run game.

Lions 27, Vikings 26

It was great to see the Lions get back on track last week. The offense was able to run the ball and hit a number of in breaking routes to create big plays. The defense decided to just start blitzing at a high rate and it worked very well for them. Speaking of blitzing, the Vikings will presumably continue blitzing this week as they have all season. If the Lions can run the ball, it might discouraged them from sending the blitz and opening up some play action opportunities. I think the Vikings keep it very close but Nick Mullens will have a couple turnovers again that will ultimately be the difference.

Commanders 14, Jets 10

It looks as if Zach Wilson will be out and Trevor Siemian will be starting at QB. Siemian struggled mightily mostly because of an offensive line that could not block anyone. Luckily the Commanders don’t have a strong pass rush or secondary for that matter. I also don’t think the Jets can take advantage of a secondary that seems to give up long TDs week after week. This seems like a sloppy game with points at a premium and I trust the Commanders offense a little bit more.

Seahawks 26, Titans 22

Geno Smith is returning from injury at QB for Seattle, while it looks like Ryan Tannehill could be starting for Tennessee. Both of these teams are a lot better when their run game is rolling. Derrick Henry is going to need to run for more than nine yards for the Titans to pull off the upset. The big advantage for the Seahawks in this game is their pass catchers against the Titans secondary. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will have big games as they help keep Seattle alive in the NFC playoff race.

Buccaneers 31, Jaguars 27

Baker Mayfield, Rachaad White, and Chris Godwin are all coming off big games and now get to face another struggling defense. Trevor Lawrence might not be able to go this week for the Jaguars would be a big blow for the entire offense. It’s time for Calvin Ridley to step up and have a big game when they need him most this week. Another key for Jacksonville is getting better play from the entire defense. It seems like the Buccaneers offense is peaking right now and hitting their groove, and they get another big win this week.

Bears 31, Cardinals 24

The Bears defense continues to rack up the turnovers but one of the big problems for the team as a whole has been finishing games off. This seems like a prime opportunity for Justin Fields to have a huge game and further make his case for QB of the future after struggling last week. The Cardinals offense has quietly been pretty good recently, and a big reason is the connection between Kyler Murray and Trey McBride. One of the biggest matchups will certainly be the Bears LBs vs McBride.

Dolphins 27, Cowboys 23

This game might ultimately come down to the Dolphins pass rush against the Cowboys offensive line, as those units were huge deciding factors in their respective games last week. The Dolphins will probably try to test Dallas with their run game as Buffalo did repeatedly last week. Miami could also be getting Tyreek Hill back this week which is obviously another huge challenge for the Dallas defense. For the Cowboys offense, they need to be more committed to their running game because I’m not sure their pass protection will be able to hold up considering they have some injuries on the O-line as well.

Broncos 20, Patriots 17

The Broncos had a big letdown last week in Detroit and cannot afford to let that happen again. The Patriots offense has been a little more respectable the last two games and can look to pull off the upset if they continue running the ball and avoiding turnovers. Bill Belichick will look to take away Courtland Sutton who seems to be the player Russell Wilson trusts in key situations. Denver may need Jerry Jeudy and the run game to show up in this game to generate enough offense.

Monday, December 25

Chiefs 30, Raiders 20

The Chiefs offensive is keyed by three playmakers: Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and Isiah Pacheco. At this point of the season, it looks like that is who they need to rely on to win games. It looks like the Raiders will get Josh Jacobs back this week and they will probably give him plenty of carries to try to wear down the Chiefs defense. Aidan O’Connell is going to have to have a big game as well if the Raiders want to escape with a win.

Eagles 27, Giants 17

The Eagles offense can’t seem to get back on track. Their run game has been solid but they seem to get away from it too much at times. The passing game is also out of sync as AJ Brown has been quiet as of late. One of the positives from the Eagles loss to the Seahawks is the defense looked much better prior to the final drive. Meanwhile, the Giants O-line struggled mightily last week and needs to improve if they want a chance in this game. If the offensive line holds up, there are plenty of holes in Philly’s defense.

49ers 27, Ravens 24

This is the game of the week and maybe the game of the year. The chess game between Kyle Shanahan’s offense and Mike MacDonald’s defense is must see TV. Brock Purdy needs to be aware of all the pre snap motion the Ravens defense deploys because they have confused many QBs all years. The 49ers can counter that with all the motion they use by getting their defense out of position. The Ravens can slow them down but their offense is still going to need to put up points. Utilizing Lamar Jackson’s athleticism and play making ability could end up being the difference in this game if the Ravens win. Ultimately I think the 49ers offense has too many playmakers and they win a close one in one of the best games of the year.