In the second to last week of the regular season, there is still plenty to be sorted out in each conference’s playoff picture. This week’s slate of games offers up some big time matchups that will determine a lot as the regular season winds down. Below are my week 17 picks.

Thursday, December 28

Browns 23, Jets 10

The Browns have an opportunity to clinch a playoff spot in this TNF finale. The emergence of Joe Flacco’s chemistry with Amari Cooper could be big in this game as well as moving forward. The Jets defense can make this a game, but it’s hard to imagine the Jets offense being able to score against this defense. Myles Garrett could have a huge game against a dismal Jets offensive line. Trevor Siemian will be in for a long night.

Saturday, December 30

Cowboys 33, Lions 30

This is one of the most pivotal games of the weekend as both of these teams are fighting for playoff positioning. The Cowboys will be back at home which has meant good things for the Cowboys all year. The Lions were opportunistic last week by forcing turnovers against the Vikings but the lack of a pass rush is glaring. They need to get after Dak Prescott if they want to slow down his connection with CeeDee Lamb. I think both offenses can score a lot in this game but the Dallas defense seems more trustworthy to make a few more stops.

Sunday, December 31

Ravens 24, Dolphins 23

This game is huge for each team. Baltimore can clinch the top seed in the AFC and Miami can win the AFC East with a win. A Dolphins loss could potentially open up an opportunity for the Bills to win the division. Both of these defenses should be able to hold their own against two very good offenses. The Dolphins run defense has been strong recently and may force the Ravens into more of a passing game but the Ravens seem equipped to win in multiple ways this year. The Dolphins should look to also stick with the run to slow down a Baltimore pass rush that got after Brock Purdy all night last week. The difference in this game will be Lamar Jackson’s ability to make plays off schedule and keep the offense moving.

Bills 26, Patriots 17

The injuries keep piling up on the Bills defense which worries me going forward, but they should still be able to beat the Patriots at home. The biggest revelation for the Bills during their resurgence has been James Cook. He seems to have unlocked the full potential of their offense by helping them stay balanced. For the Patriots, it has been tough running the ball the last couple weeks. Bailey Zappe has had some good stretches of play within games but they need a more consistent run game to help him out. Buffalo has defensed the run better lately and will probably make that their core focus and let Zappe and the passing game beat them.

Bears 27, Falcons 20

The biggest matchup in this game will be the Falcons run game vs the Bears run defense, the two strengths of those respective units. Taylor Heinicke will probably have to do more this week after playing well last week. Meanwhile, the Bears offense has a pretty strong formula on offense with a strong run game and Justin Fields making plays off play action. The Chicago pass game is still inconsistent week to week which would be good to work out as the season closes out.

Texans 24, Titans 17

CJ Stroud should be back for the Texans in this one which will be much needed. Whether Ryan Tannehill or Will Levis starts, the Titans need to run the ball much better than they did two weeks ago when these two teams faced. Derrick Henry only had nine rushing yards in that game and will need to be much better than that if the Titans want to upset Houston. The Texans pass defense needs to improve as well after allowing Amari Cooper to go for 265 yards!

Raiders 20, Colts 16

This Raiders defense has been playing with so much energy and physicality lately. They have also scored four defensive TDs on defense the last two weeks. The Colts offense really struggled to get going last week and desperately need to get Michael Pittman back to help the pass game. Gardner Minshew needs to stay patient and avoid turning it over because this Raiders pass rush could force him into some mistakes. The Raiders are going to need to be more productive offensively by getting Davante Adams and the rest of the pass game.

Jaguars 24, Panthers 16

The Jaguars are in a dire situation after losing four straight games. Trevor Lawrence now has a shoulder injury and the Jags may now have to start CJ Beathard. One of the biggest problems with the Jacksonville offense has been the lack of a consistent run game. Travis Etienne needs to get back to the production he had earlier in the season. The Panthers offense finally exploded for 30 points last week behind an encouraging game from Bryce Young. I think that was a bit of a mirage but look for this Panthers team to give Jacksonville a scare and possibly pull off the upset.

Rams 30, Giants 20

The Rams offense is among the most dangerous in the league right now. The defense has some holes but overall they have done a good job of limiting points. They look like one of the most dangerous teams in the league right now and a team that can make a serious Super Bowl run. The Giants continue to compete each week but they won’t be able to keep up in this game. Tyrod Taylor starting at QB helps open up the deep passing game more but they simply don’t have the firepower to keep up with elite offenses.

Eagles 27, Cardinals 24

It’s fair to wonder if the Eagles will ever play up to their standard this season. The defense is still leaky and the offense continues to turn the ball over. One of the positive takeaways from their narrow win over the Giants last week was the run game. The negative was the pass defense giving up too many big plays again. I think the Cardinals can keep this game close but ultimately their defense is not good enough. Trey McBride will continue to feast against the Philly secondary.

Buccaneers 28, Saints 24

Tampa Bay can clinch the NFC South with a win and I think they get it done. Baker Mayfield is laying some terrific football as of late and Mike Evans seems unstoppable almost every week. Between Evans, Rachaad White, and Chris Godwin, this Buccaneers offense has been hard to stop. The Saints offense needs to start fast which they seem to struggle with most weeks. New Orleans also needs to cut down on mistakes like penalties and drops if they want to stay alive this week.

49ers 45, Commanders 27

The 49ers are going to take their frustration of last week’s loss on this hapless Commanders defense. The entire 49ers offense could eat in this one as everyone gets back on track. Jacoby Brissett will be starting in this game for Washington which will help the entire offense, especially Terry McLaurin who was struggling to produce with Sam Howell under center. The 49ers defense has been tough to figure out as they have been inconsistent this season. Washington will score a bit on them but it won’t end up mattering.

Seahawks 23, Steelers 20

Both of these teams absolutely need this game making it one of the week’s best. The Steelers offense looked great against the Bengals with Mason Rudolph starting at QB but it’s hard to imagine that will continue going forward. The Seahawks are a hard team to figure out but they have found a way to win at the end two weeks in a row. Kenneth Walker and the run game seems to be the identity of this offense and they are much better when he gets the ball consistently. They should continue running the ball but this would also be a good week to get the pass game clicking against a very questionable Pittsburgh secondary.

Broncos 17, Chargers 15

The Broncos are moving to Jarrett Stidham in this game, about a year after he last started a a game. Denver needs to make sure they protect him and that they have an answer for Khalil Mack coming off the edge. The Chargers played a much more inspired game all around in Giff Smith’s first game as interim HC. They found a way to get solid offensive production from Easton Stick and the offense but they had to settle for too many field goals last week. If Keenan Allen plays, I’ll be tempted to take the Chargers but I think the Broncos win a close one at home to keep their faint playoff hopes alive.

Chiefs 27, Bengals 24

The Chiefs offense has serious offensive concerns but I think they remedy them for at least this week against a very poor Cincinnati defense that made the Steelers offense look elite last week. Jake Browning had a rough game last week but I think he can rebound in this one if the O-line holds up. Cincinnati should try to emulate what the Raiders did last week by utilizing the run game and wearing down the Kansas City front seven. The Bengals have a better passing game to take advantage of some play action shots as well. The Chiefs offense is really struggling but Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice should have big enough games to earn the narrow victory.

Vikings 30, Packers 27

This NFC North game is huge in determining if either of these teams can sneak into the playoffs. Jaren Hall is starting for the Vikings with their season on the line but I trust Kevin O’Connell to scheme open enough open receivers for Hall to succeed. The Packers defense seems to underachieve week after week and they are coming off a game in which they allowed the Panthers to score 30 points. Plus, the Packers will be without their top CB in Jaire Alexander who they suspended for this game. It seems like the Packers offense and Jordan Love will need to have a big game to win this one.